How xGscore predictions works?

xGscore predictions

The foundation of our predictions is
an expected score calculation of a football match, based on xG statistics, hence the name of the site xGscore (Expected Goals Score).

2.6 0.9

Arsenal

November 20, 2021

4 3.50

0 0.33

0.1

West Ham

November 7, 2021

2 1.59

3 1.23

0.1

Atletico

November 3, 2021

2 1.97

0 0.56

0.1

Every match matters

The calculation model is based on the goals and xG of all games played by the team.

Every match has its own impact value on the system algorithms. This value depends on date, venue, result, opponent's level, tournament and other factors.

Match categories

All games are divided into several categories: Home matches, Away matches, Head to head and Similar opponents matches.

The number of scored and conceded goals is calculated for each category separately.

Team expected goals

Neural network algorithms determine the impact of each match category and generate expected goals for both home and away teams.

Players' form and motivation

For a more accurate prediction we take into account the human factor.

We evaluate the current state of attack and defense based on: injuries, suspensions, form of players and their motivation.

Liverpool

Match Score Prediction

2.560.94

Man United

Expected score

We combine scored and conceded goals of both teams into a final score prediction.

The model thoroughly analyses the input data and determines a team's impact on the end formula.

Probabilities of outcomes

Using the Poisson distribution, we calculate the probabilities of each match event based on the predicted score.

As a result we get the odds line for each major market: Result, Double chance, Both to score, Totals and Handicaps.

Result

1 1.39

x 5.3

2 7.9

Double Chance

1x 1.13

12 1.22

x2 3.11

Total

3.5

Over 2.51

Under 1.66

Both to Score

Yes 1.77

No 2.05

Result

1 1.41

x 5.3

2 7.7

Double Chance

1x 1.11

12 1.20

x2 3.03

Total

3.5

Over 2.47

Under 1.64

Both to Score

Yes 1.78

No 1.99

Result

1 1.43

x 5.3

2 7.8

Double Chance

1x 1.12

12 1.21

x2 3.07

Total

3.5

Over 2.49

Under 1.65

Both to Score

Yes 1.77

No 2.02

Bookmaker's odds

We compare our probabilities and odds with bookmaker's betting lines to find the best betting opportunity with the highest coefficient.

Match predictions and tips

Our experts define recommended betting size percentages for each prediction. We also optionally provide advanced calculation values like Value bet and Error.

The Premium subscription gives access to our bonus prediction categories: Permium with the highest ROI according to our statistics, and Safe for parlays.

1.43

Public prediction

Liverpool Win

2% Bet size

89% of users agreed with prediction

120 Votes

2.51

Premium prediction

Total Over 3.5

5% Bet size

85% of users agreed with prediction

54 Votes

1.22

Sure bet prediction

Total Over 2

3% Bet size

96% of users agreed with prediction

53 Votes

All predictions on Patreon

For your convenience, we publish all our daily forecasts in one picture on the Patreon platform.

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