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How does it work?

1

xGscore forecasting

The foundation of our predictions is
an expected score calculation of a football match, based on xG statistics, hence the name of the site xGscore (Expected goals score).

Liverpool
2.6 0.9
Man United
Arsenal

November 20, 2021

4 3.50
0 0.33
0.1
West Ham

November 7, 2021

2 1.59
3 1.23
0.1
Atletico

November 3, 2021

2 1.97
0 0.56
0.1

2

Every match matters

The calculation model is based on the goals and xG of all games played by the team.

Every match has its own impact value on the system algorithms. This value depends on date, venue, result, opponent's level, tournament and other factors.

3

Match categories

All games are divided into several categories: Home matches, Away matches, Head to head and Similar opponents matches.

The number of scored and conceded goals is calculated for each category separately.

Home matches
GS GC
Benfica

April 13, 2022

3 2.16
3 0.96
60
Watford

April 2, 2022

2 2.25
0 0.72
100
Atletico

March 8, 2022

0 1.01
1 0.87
40
Away matches
GS GC
Man City

April 10, 2022

2 1.08
2 1.32
100
Benfica

April 5, 2022

3 2.37
1 1.12
30
Arsenal

March 16, 2022

2 1.03
0 0.55
40
Head to head
GS GC
Man United

April 10, 2021

5 3.57
0 1.32
100
Man United

May 13, 2021

4 2.75
2 1.93
30
Man United

January 17, 2021

0 1.58
0 1.17
50
Similar opponents
GS GC
Tottenham

December 19, 2021

2 1.41
2 2.87
40
Arsenal

November 20, 2021

4 3.50
0 0.33
100
Chelsea

August 28, 2021

1 3.35
1 0.73
65
Tables results
GS GC
Home matches
1.9 1.0
1
Away matches
1.7 1.2
1
Head to head
3.2 0.9
1
Similar opponents
2.9 0.8
1

4

Team expected goals

Neural network algorithms determine the impact of each match category and generate expected goals for both home and away teams.

5

Players' form and motivation

For a more accurate prediction we take into account the human factor.

We evaluate the current state of attack and defense based on: injuries, suspensions, form of players and their motivation.

Team form Balance
Attack condition
-0.01%
-0.01
Defence condition
+0%
0
Overall form
+0.01%
0.01
Motivation
+0.01%
0.01
Teams impact
0%
Liverpool
Man United
100%
0
Liverpool
Match score prediction
2.560.94
Man United

6

Expected score

We combine scored and conceded goals of both teams into a final score prediction.

The model thoroughly analyses the input data and determines a team's impact on the end formula.

7

Probabilities of outcomes

Using the Poisson distribution, we calculate the probabilities of each match event based on the predicted score.

As a result we get the odds line for each major market: Result, Double chance, Both to score, Totals and Handicaps.

Result
1 1.39 x 5.34 2 7.86
Double chance
1x 1.13 12 1.22 x2 3.11
Total
3.5 Over 2.51 Under 1.66
Both to score
Yes 1.77 No 2.05
Result
1 1.41 x 5.26 2 7.72
Double chance
1x 1.11 12 1.20 x2 3.03
Total
3.5 Over 2.47 Under 1.64
Both to score
Yes 1.78 No 1.99
Result
1 1.43 x 5.30 2 7.79
Double chance
1x 1.12 12 1.21 x2 3.07
Total
3.5 Over 2.49 Under 1.65
Both to score
Yes 1.77 No 2.02

8

Bookmaker's odds

We compare our probabilities and odds with bookmaker's betting lines to find the best betting opportunity with the highest coefficient.

9

Match predictions and tips

Our selected predictions include Value bet, Calculation error, suggested bet size percentages and rating for each betting tip.

The Premium subscription gives access to our bonus prediction categories: Profitable with the highest ROI according to our statistics, and Safe for parlays.

1.43

Public prediction

Liverpool Win

9.4% Value bet
9.4% Error
3% Bet size
4.5

64 Ratings

2.51

Profitable prediction

Total over 3.5

6.4% Value bet
1.5% Error
5% Bet size
4.2

59 Ratings

1.22

Safe prediction

Total over 2

4.3% Value bet
1.1% Error
3% Bet size
4.7

48 Ratings

All predictions on Patreon

10

All predictions on Patreon

For your convenience, we publish all our daily forecasts in one picture on the Patreon platform.

We are a Ukrainian startup and 100% of all donations will be transferred to charitable foundations in Ukraine, towards our victory.
In exchange, we offer:

  • Free Premium account on our site.
  • Premium predictions (Profitable and Safe).
  • Value bet, error and bet size for every prediction.
  • Streaks game view for every league.
  • Predictions Manager tool.