xG statistics is a modern model of evaluating scoring chances in a football match. Every shot is assigned a probability score (0.01 to 1) which represents how close this shot was to a goal. As a result, the Expected Goals of both teams are calculated, which makes it possible to evaluate which team created more winning chances and how well deserved the final result on the scoreboard is.
You can find additional information on how xG was created, calculated and how it is used for match predictions in the article What is xG in football?. Below, we will discuss in depth some additional xG models.
Advanced xG statistics
Just like everything else in this world, expected goals stats never stays the same. Football analysts never stop searching for new ways to calculate data and as a result new xG metrics appear every year.
The xGscore service offers advanced xG statistics for top European leagues, including the Champions League and the Europa League. On the tournament page, you will find the results and expected goals of the last tournament, as well as the championship table with the corresponding indicators.
By clicking on one of the tournament matches, you will have the opportunity to get acquainted with the detailed information about the last game played. Here, in addition to the familiar match statistics (like ball possession, passing accuracy, shots on target) advanced xG metrics are also provided. Let's review each one of them in detail.
xG Scored
xG (Expected Goals) - as we’ve mentioned in the first paragraph, the basic scoring model includes all shots represented as expected goals. The evaluation of a shot depends on multiple factors: the distance to the goal, the position of the attacking player and the part of the body used to shoot, the defenders’ and the goalkeeper’s position, etc. In team statistics the xG is divided into goals scored and goals conceded.
xG Conceded
xGC (Conceded) - are the expected goals admitted by the team in their own goal. Lately xGC has become one of the key indicators of a goalkeeper’s performance. Top tier goalkeepers’ xGC number is always higher than the goals conceded because they handle «dead balls» more often. Lower ranked goalkeepers, who can manage to concede a goal from 40 meters, therefore, will have more goals conceded than xG.
xG Fairness
xG Fairness is a metric used to determine how the actual goals scored compare to the expected goals. xG Fairness is expressed as a percentage. This value helps to easily settle a debate whether the team deserved to win based on their effort or if they simply got lucky. This brings us to the next indicator.
xG Luckiness
If the xG fairness value is not 100%, then one of the teams got lucky and the other did not. xGscore calculates this ratio after each match and puts out the club's average luck over the season. In most cases this value ranges from -30% (a very unlucky team) to +30% (a very lucky team). You can find xG luckiness value in the preview on the match prediction page. Based on our experience, if this value is very low or very high, you need to think twice about the size of your bet.
xGOT Expected Goals on Target
xGOT (On Target) is a relatively new xG model. To calculate it, only shots on target are taken into consideration. The xGOT shot evaluation system is different from the basic model in the fact that it takes into account the power of the shot, the speed of the ball,its trajectory, and flight height.. The Expected Goals on Target number gives an even more accurate assessment of the goalkeeper's performance, because they contain the information about the complexity of the shot .
xG by Halves
xGFH (First half), xGSH (Second half). This is quite self explanatory, the expected goals are splitted for the first and second half. These indicators are useful for betting on the results of each half, as well as assessing a team’s effectiveness at set periods of time.
xG Open Play
xGOP (Open play) is another very useful method of calculating xG statistics, that takes into account only the chances created by the players during open play. High xGOP values normally indicate the teams with well-planned offensive play, high ball possession rate and good passing play in the last third of the field.
xG Set Play
xGSP (Set play) - is the opposite of xGOP and it calculates the expected goals created from set plays (like corners and free kicks). Moreover, not only direct free kicks are taken into account but also moments that arise from set plat crosses, passes and follow-up rebounds.
xG Penalty
xG Penalty is an xG indicator that is calculated as a result of a penalty kick against one of the teams. It is statistically known that there is a 79% chance of scoring from the penalty line, so this shot earns the player exactly 0.79 xG. Sometimes the penalty xG is also included in the xGSP as a set play, but in our statistics we consider them separately.
xPTS Expected Points
xPTS (Expected Points) are the expected earned points that are calculated based on a match xG. The sum of the xPTS of both teams does not necessarily equal 3. For example, if the players scored an equal number of xG, then the number of the expected points will move towards 1. This is exactly the number of points the team usually gets for a draw. If the xPTS indicator on the score table is less than the actual points, it means that the team is overperforming. The opposite result is called underperformance. Expected points are often used to place bets on the final place of the club in the standings, since according to the mathematical expectation, xPTS and actual points trend towards each other.
xG Predictability
xG Predictability - is a value developed by xGscore analysts to determine the overlap ratio between expected goals and our game score predictions. The higher this indicator, the easier it is to predict the results of the team. You can find xG Predictability as well as xG Luckiness on the match predictions page. According to our statistics, betting on clubs with a high predictability score shows the highest ROI.