Stuttgart return to the Champions League after a season in the Europa League, while Viking's night in Germany will be their first match in the competition's main league phase. The Norwegian champions came through qualifying against Dinamo Zagreb and arrive in full competitive rhythm, whereas Sebastian Hoeness's side are only just getting into their season. Stuttgart sporting director Fabian Wohlgemuth specifically warned before the game that Viking cannot be underestimated.
The hosts have several squad problems, particularly in defence. Deniz Undav is available, although Hoeness recently said the striker is still being troubled by his Achilles tendon. Viking also have absences, but they have kept their key attacking players and already showed in qualifying that they can respond after a difficult start to a match.
Stuttgart Form and xG
Stuttgart's last five matches have been highly uneven, averaging 2.6 goals scored and 2.4 conceded with 2.2 xG created against 2.5 allowed. After losing 1:5 to Bayern, they responded with a 4:1 home win over Cologne, generating 3.33 xG while still allowing 2.63. Before that Stuttgart beat Bayer Leverkusen with 3.14 xG against 0.70 and drew 3:3 with Hoffenheim.
The home profile is much stronger: 1.9 goals scored and 1.0 conceded with 2.2 xG against 1.2. Their record against opponents of a similar level is particularly convincing - Hamburg, Wolfsburg, Celtic, Young Boys and Maccabi produced an average score of 3.0:0.8 with 2.9 xG against 0.8. Hoeness is also working without several players, with Dan-Axel Zagadou, Tiago Tomas, Lorenz Assignon and Luca Jaquez among those unavailable. That reduces Stuttgart's depth, especially at the back.
Viking Form and xG
Viking arrive with a much longer competitive run behind them and have averaged 1.8 goals from 1.7 xG across their last five matches, while conceding 1.4 from 1.5 xG allowed. In qualifying against Dinamo Zagreb, the Norwegians twice outperformed the underlying chance quality: they drew 2:2 away with 0.76 xG against 2.17, then won at home despite an xG balance of 1.63 to 1.87.
The away profile is not passive either, with 1.7 goals scored from 1.6 xG and 1.1 conceded from 1.2. Viking are used to playing at a high tempo and are already deep into their domestic season, something Stuttgart highlighted before the match. The visitors are not at full strength, with Anders Bertelsen and Veton Berisha among those unavailable and several defenders carrying fitness concerns. Their main attacking threat still revolves around Zlatko Tripic and Peter Christiansen.
xG Prediction and Correct Score
The model sees the match at 3.3:1.0 in Stuttgart's favour. The home win is supported by Stuttgart's volume of chances at home and especially by their strong numbers against comparable opponents. Viking are unlikely to withstand sustained pressure for the full match, so over 2.5 goals follows naturally from the German side's attacking advantage and ability to create repeated dangerous sequences.
There is still a case for a Viking goal. Stuttgart have conceded in seven straight matches, with both teams scoring in every one of them, while the same outcome has landed in Viking's last six. The pattern also appears regularly in Viking's away matches. If the Norwegians take advantage of one transition or set piece, both ideas can land together: Stuttgart keep the upper hand, but the match does not end with a clean sheet. The expected correct score is 3:1.
Stuttgart vs Viking Expert Pick
Of the main options, both teams to score looks the most substantial. A Stuttgart win and a high total depend more heavily on the hosts' attacking dominance, while this selection is also supported by Viking's ability to find a goal even when the opponent creates significantly more. The recommended stake size is available to Premium subscribers.
