The xG Edge: Using Data Analysis to Beat the Bookmakers (Even Without Sign-Up Bonuses)

xG is one of the most important statistics in football worldwide, as it determines many variables such as how difficult/easy the goal which has been scored was or how good/bad the chances a team has had during a game are. xG has become a pivotal part to sports betting, as it helps individuals to choose much more wisely where to place their wagers.

However, due to the huge teams that work behind every betting site, beating bookmakers can be a bit challenging, especially on a field like football where many individuals play regularly. However, there is a way to smartly beat these bookmakers, and it’s much much simpler than you think: data analysis. 

But how can we apply it to guarantee big wins?

Understanding xG

xG, short for expected goals, is a statistical measure that calculates the probability of a certain shot ending up in a goal. xG is influenced by different variables such as shot angle, shot distance, defensive pressure, and many more. xG, therefore, is a way to determine not only the amount of chances a team had, but also how good those chances were.

To put it into perspective, a tap-in has a big xG whilst a shot from outside the box has little xG. These chances are then merged into one number which shows how good the chances a team had were, showing who should have won the game based on chances.

The Bookmaker’s Advantage

Bookmakers don’t randomly create odds from nothing, they carefully study every variable to determine which odds they place. Amongst the many factors that influence odds, xG plays a pivotal role in doing so. Bookmakers, on the other hand, are also very smart, as they create odds by applying and studying data but also tweaking such data to guarantee they win many with whatever odd they put.

This, of course, guarantees that bookies win every time, so even after analyzing the sharpest statistics and the most in-depth data, you can still lose to bookmakers.

However, there’s a way to turn such a thing around, a way by which you can beat bookmakers by using xG. You just need the right approach.

Leveraging xG for Betting

xG’s true value comes from precisely knowing how and where we can take advantage of a certain odd. Although bookmakers have very big teams, there are some occasions where they place a generic odd on a player or a team that has been overperforming their xG.

For example, let’s imagine Melbourne City and Melbourne Victory both played against each other and Victory won 2-0. Bookmakers could simply acknowledge that Victory were the better team and City were just not good enough, but xG says that Melbourne City had an xG of 2.1 whilst Victory had an xG of 0.6. If bookmakers overreact to such a result, they can put bigger odds on Melbourne City for their next game, even after they performed well and were just unlucky, creating a great opportunity to place a winning bet.

Beyond xG: Other Useful Data Points

We have already discussed the importance of xG and how it can be used in your favor, but are there any other useful data points which we can use to increase our odds of winning?

Of course there are, here are three of the most important data points to study:

• Team Form vs. Underlying Performance: a team may be on a losing streak and play well, just being unlucky, like Melbourne City on the example given on the point above.

• Player Metrics: not only do you have to study a team's xG, study, for example, the overall xG of a certain striker or player and how you can apply such knowledge to your bets.

• Historical Matchups: even if a team is performing badly, there are times where they play a certain team which they have done well against or have a rivalry against, leveling the odds.

• Game Context: especially on key parts of the season, relegation-threatened sides may provide a much better result than teams on the top of the league table.

Building a Data-Driven Betting Strategy

Now that you know how xG works and how to make the best out of xG, you may be asking yourself how to apply the given information, and it’s simple. Here are some easy ways to build your strategy:

• Compare xG Trends with Odds: try to find teams who underperform or overperform their xG and see if the market notices.

• Manage Your Bankroll: play smartly, bet 5% maximum of what you have.

• Think Long-Term: losses are normal, keep going.

Tools and Resources for xG Analysis

Many websites make all the work for you and analyze xG. The best thing? Some of them are completely free! Sites like FBRef or Understat provide in-depth xG data and insights for everyone to use. 

xG is easy to interpret, but you need to know how to do it. Look for insights such as cumulative xG, shot maps and expected vs actual goals. Also, try to use xG alongside other key data such as possession, pressing intensity, style of play…

The Australian Context

If you’re in Australia, you have noticed that sign-up bonuses and betting promo codes are non-existent. This is due to strict regulations that require betting sites to not provide incentives to their users.

Thanks to this rule, Australian betting is focused on data analysis, encouraging bettors to make much wiser and intelligent choices on their wagers. These measures are getting much stricter, as the Australian Gambling Commission wants to create a much more intelligent and safer style of betting.

Play Safe, Play Better

Betting is a much more complex activity than it looks like. It’s not instantly betting on whatever your gut tells you, it’s a data-driven activity where, with the correct research, you can create much wiser choices and better strategies, with xG playing a very important role.

Bear in mind no one wins every bet they place, but playing intelligently will result on odds being in your favor, getting close to winning, even if bookies beat you almost every time.