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xGscore Betting Guide

Betting Guide

Hi there! We introduce the most important article from the creators of xGscore. We strongly recommend that you read this material to the end. The next 10 minutes might change your approach to betting and rise your profit to next level. In this article, we will cover the most topical questions regarding predictions on our service.

To answer these questions, we will turn to the history of the xGscore betting project and repeat the basic betting terminology we use on our site. Let's talk about everything in order.

Betting selection system

Bettors who have been following xGscore for a long time know that since 2018, our predictions have been built on two key metrics: Value bet and Calculation error. However, in 2022, the recommended betting percentage of bankroll has become the primary indicator for evaluating a prediction. 

Value Bet and Calculations Error

First, let's understand the terminology.

Value bet — a parameter that demonstrates how much (as a percentage) bookmakers underestimate the probability of a particular event in the odds.

Error — a value developed by the creators of xGscore that determines the accuracy of our prediction calculation. You can learn more about the methods of calculating these parameters on the page How It Works?

If necessary, the display of Value bet and margin of error on our website can be enabled in the account settings.

Our primary recommendation from the beginning was to choose bets with a positive Value bet up to 10%. In theory, the higher the Value bet, the more profitable the bet. However, in practice, it turned out that predictions with a value greater than 10% did not come true in most cases. This is because we did not always have all the pre-match information and could have overlooked quite serious factors. In addition, the margin of error also had to be between 0 and 10%, according to the statistics of winning matches. 

Overall, this strategy produced outstanding results. In some months, the bankroll grew 2–3 times with a relatively passive strategy, allowing a bet of 5-10% of the bank on one prediction. But, unfortunately, this approach did not always work. There were negative periods. Then, our team started looking for real working ways to minimize them.

Recommended betting percentage

Value bet and Error are just some indicators of a good bet. To increase the stability and profitability of our predictions, we decided to consider even more parameters when analyzing matches.

Over time, new functionality has been implemented on the site to track trends statistics and ROI of outcomes. In addition, the match analysis has been updated with new factors:

  • team form and ranking,
  • advanced xG,
  • expected goals in recent games,
  • odds movement and margins,
  • player injuries and suspensions,
  • team motivation and others.

Combining all these variables with the analysis of xGscore experts has formed a new indicator for selecting predictions - the recommended percentage of the bet from the bank or bet size. This value is accessible on the match page only in the premium subscription and ranges from 1% to 10%. We can say that this is our evaluation of the forecast on a ten-point scale. Also, the color-highlighting system will tell you which predictions are better to skip and which ones are recommended to bet on.

1% – not recommended, we didn't find a good outcome to play this match;

2% – doubtful, but possible, think twice before bet;

3% - 5% – bettable, potentially a good bet;

6% - 7% – good option, matches many positive analysis criteria;

8% - 10% – gold bet, the best that can be found at xGscore.

As you can see, the higher the recommended percentage, the more profitable the forecast, confirmed by the ROI statistics.

What is ROI?

ROI is a significant forecast profitability determination tool used by many professional sports bettors, including us, the xGscore team. In a nutshell, it is the difference between the amount you invest in bets and the profit expressed as a percentage. You can find out how ROI is calculated by clicking on this link.

Prediction types on xGscore

xGscore offers members several kinds of predictions, which differ in their profitability and access level. Let's talk about each of them in detail.

Public predictions 

These are free predictions available to all users of our site. The odds in them are highlighted in green.

  • 1.8 average odds.
  • 100–150 predictions per week.
  • 1-2% ROI return.
  • 1-3% recommended bet size.

The return on public predictions over the long haul is between 1 and 2% ROI. At first glance, the figures are small. However, if we consider the bookmaker's margin of 3-5%, it becomes obvious that we estimate the probability of an event to be, on average, 5% better than the bookmaker's office itself. And if we add to this a minimal analysis, it is quite realistic to filter out good bets and get a stable profit. The recommended percentage of bets on public predictions is up to 3% of the bank.

Premium predictions

Premium or profitable predictions have the highest ROI and are available only in Premium subscription on the website and in our Patreon page. That predictions are highlighted with xGscore's signature gradient.

  • 1.6 average odds.
  • 15–25 predictions per week.
  • 5-15% ROI return.
  • 4-10% recommended bet size.

The system of selecting these bets results from improving the website's algorithms, which we have worked on for five years. In turn, playing on premium predictions is the most stable and profitable strategy for a bettor on xGscore. The higher the recommended percentage, the higher the expected profit from the bet. 

For example, bets of 7% of the bank and above give 8-15% ROI. This is the data we got after analyzing 5000 bets over the last two and a half years. And the current results only confirm these statistics. You can sign up for a Premium subscription here.

Sure bet predictions

Bonus category for our premium subscribers - predictions with low odds intended for expresses. They are highlighted in black in the site interface.

  • 1.25 average odds.
  • 20–30 predictions per week.
  • 2-4% ROI return.
  • 1-5% recommended bet size.

As the name implies, these are bets on the most likely events of the match. Regrettably, these sure bets are not as profitable as premium due to the high margin of bookmakers on small odds. Therefore, our recommendation is to make accumulators of 2–3 events. The size of the bet on the express is determined by the sum of the recommended percentage of all predictions (but no more than 7% of the total bank).

#DailyExpress

#DailyAccumulator

An accumulator (express) is a bet consisting of several selections at once. The odds of all outcomes are multiplied. Therefore, its final odds are always more interesting than in the case of single bets.

The xGscore team publishes a daily #DailyAccumulator for free, which can be found on our free Telegram channel or our Facebook page. More often than not, these accumulators also consist of sure bets with positive returns of around 3-4%.

#PremiumAccumulator

It is one of the most popular acummulators among the Premium subscribers of our Telegram channel. It includes 2-3 Premium  predictions, carefully selected by our experts from all available profitable bets of the same day. Its average odds are 2.5. Profitability or ROI on a long distance is estimated at 10%. Let's just mention that Premium accumulator prediction are traditionally published on days when enough matches are being played, and a large selection of good bets are available. 

You can subscribe to the #PremiumAccumulator newsletter and get premium access to our site's features for only 20 euros per month via Telegram-bot xGscore. 

#DailyExpress

Betting strategies by xGscore predictions

Every sports bettor has a unique strategy. Some bet only on “over/unders”or "both teams to score", while others build accumulators. Some people look for attractive odds a week before the match, while others bet exclusively in live mode, sitting at home in front of the TV. Someone has several thousand dollars in circulation and puts a fixed percentage of the bank, and someone plays flat for 10 dollars. 

Our service is versatile. For this reason, it will be helpful for both beginners and professionals, regardless of preferences in betting. Let's talk about the strategies that work best according to xGscore predictions.

Bankroll management

The first thing every bettor should have is a game bankroll. The presence of a game bank distinguishes a professional from an amateur. Of course, the amount of the bankroll is individual for each player. If you do not have enough experience in betting, we do not recommend playing for big money. 

At the initial stage, form a bank of no more than 30-50% of your monthly income. After a few months, when you learn to manage your bankroll with a cool head, you can increase it up to 100%. 

Determine the time cycles for generating income and zeroing out your bankroll. We recommend recording revenue once a month. Take your winnings and begin the new month with the starting amount.

How to choose the amount to bet?

Choose the optimal bankroll management strategy to determine the amount you will bet. The xGscore experts recommend using one of two popular and easy-to-use strategies.

Percentage betting

In this particular strategy, a percentage of the bankroll is calculated before each new bet. In essence, it is similar to compound interest in investments. The more we win, the faster the bankroll and the bet amount grow. If there is a series of losses, the amount of each subsequent bet decreases, which allows us to reduce the bank's drawdown. 

This strategy is perfect for bettors with a decent bank of several thousand dollars. The average bet size should be within 4-5% of the bankroll, the maximum - no more than 10%. 

If you already have a premium subscription to xGscore, it is strongly encouraged to bet only on Premium predictions. The bet amount can be easily calculated based on the recommended percentage we specify in each betting tip.

Example of bets with an initial bank of $2000:

Odds Rec. percentage Percent. Bet size Result Bank
1.75 6% 2000 / 100 *6 = 120 Win +90 2090
1.95 4% 2090 / 100 * 4 = 84 Loss -84 2006
1.6 8% 2006 / 100 * 8 = 160 Win +96 2102
1.5 10% 2102 / 100 * 10 = 210 Win +105 2207

Flat betting

The flat strategy involves a fixed amount of bets on each event. A percentage of the bankroll can also determine the bet amount. The main difference from the previous strategy is that the bet size does not change, regardless of whether the bankroll is growing or shrinking.

Flat betting can be suitable for bettors who do not have a large bankroll yet and are willing to take risks. The bet size should not exceed 10% of the total amount, as no one is immune to a long series of failures.

Playing flat, it is also allowed to bet with different percentages of the pot. It all depends on how confident you are in your prediction. Or on what the recommended betting percentage has been determined by the xGscore analyst (in case you have a Premium subscription). 

The highest results can be obtained when betting on Premium predictions with a recommendation of more than 5% of the pot. If you also plan to bet on public ones, choose predictions with a 2% or more stake. More often than not, a 1% recommendation tells us there is no favorable outcome to bet on in this game, and it is better to ignore such matches.

Example of flat bets with a bank of $500.

Odds Rec. percentage Percent. Bet amount Result Bank
1.90 5% 25 Win +23 523
1.80 5% 25 Loss -25 498
2.1 5% 25 Win +28 526
1.85 5% 25 Win +21 547

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How to select the optimal number of bets?

Determining the number of matches you will bet on is also an essential part of the strategy. Here are a few factors to consider.

  • The time you are willing to devote to predicting and analyzing the match.
  • The availability of high odds at the bookmaker.
  • The size of the bank and the amount allocated per bet.

Below, we will give you some examples, and you can decide which one is closer to you. However, perhaps you will settle on something average.

80–120 bets per week

It's not a bad option if you have enough time to devote to betting and are willing to spend a few hours a day selecting good bets and odds in BO. With this strategy, we recommend betting on predictions (including public ones) with a betting percentage of xGscore 2% and above. Such forecasts will be about 5-10 on weekdays during European Cups, and 30-40 on weekends per day.

20–25 bets per week

Suitable for those bettors who want to spend a minimum of time on the bookmaker's site and a maximum - analyzing the pre-match layouts and selecting the best options. The bet amount on the outcome with such matches can be increased from 5 to 10%. If you choose this approach, we recommend betting only on Premium predictions, completely ignoring the public ones.

5–10 bets per week

The option for the most disciplined players who want to maximize their ROI. Here, it is essential to be able to refuse a bet in case there is not a single suitable option on the game day. With this strategy, you must find one event out of 20–30 matches that can be called a perfect bet. Premium predictions from xGscore will also help you cope with this task. Our experts select the most promising events and assign them the highest recommended percentage for betting, from 7 to 10%.

Use our tips if you play on the minimum number of bets.

Always analyze the game additionally.

  • Weigh up the pros and cons.
  • Check the list of injured and disqualified players, as it may change after the publication of the forecast.
  • Pay attention to the data that xGscore calculated for each match. Understanding the pre-match stats is the key to winning.
  • Do not neglect information and advice from other services and sports resources. 

The more time you devote to analyzing the match and finding a favorable bet, the higher the probability of your success. And that's our primary recommendation, regardless of the strategy you choose.

Where can I check out the Premium predictions?

Once you subscribe, you will have two options to access the premium predictions and the recommended betting percentage. 

  1. The first option is the Patreon newsletter, where we publish all daily predictions in one image. 
  2. The most effective and convenient alternative is the prediction manager on the site, which is available only to users with Premium subscriptions xgscore.io/predictions-manager. It is equally suitable to use in both desktop and mobile versions.

Predictions manager

Predictions manager mobile
Predictions manager filters

On this webpage, you will find all the bets we publish for the week ahead. You will be able to filter by date, tournament, and market.

The prediction manager also provides Value bet, and Error indicators that experienced xGscore users are used to working with. For them to be displayed, you need to set the appropriate settings in your account.

With the flexible functionality of the manager, you also have the opportunity to sort only Safe or Premium tips if you wish. There is a separate filter for the recommended bet percentage. With its help, you can select, for example, the most favorable predictions from 7% and higher.

xGscore Premium Subscription

To access premium content and functionality on our website, you need to subscribe monthly.

The subscription price is €20 per month, and here's what it includes:

  • Premium account on the site;
  • Open access on Patreon content;
  • All predictions in one image every day;
  • Recommended betting percentage for all predictions;
  • Premium and Sure bet predictions;
  • Prediction Manager section;
  • Streaks section for all leagues;
  • ROI stats section for all leagues.

How to subscribe to the Premium package?

You can subscribe and pay for the Premium subscription through the Patreon platform in 5 easy steps:

  1. Go to Patreon and choose the Premium Supporter package.
  2. Pay for the subscription with a credit card or Paypal.
  3. If you don't have an account on the xGscore website, register.
    (The email must match the one on Patreon)
  4. Log in and go to your xGscore account /account/settings.
  5. Confirm your email and click the Update status button.

Done! Your subscription is activated!

Conclusion

Be aware that betting is not necessarily a success story. Only a few people consistently play for profit, beating bookmakers. This article is our attempt to make such people more numerous. The xGscore team encourages its users to play responsibly. If you feel addicted to betting, seek support from loved ones and gamcare resources. It is also important to realize that no service can give a 100% guarantee of wins. Everything depends on you and your ability to analyze information and make rational decisions properly.

If you are not ready to be responsible for your game, take betting as entertainment and do not bet big money. If you are serious about development, are prepared to devote time to analyzing matches, are morally stable to a series of failures, have discipline, and want to earn money on betting, xGscore will be your reliable source of information and guide to the betting world.

Have a good bet!

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