Villarreal return to Signal Iduna Park less than a year after losing 0:4 there, when Borussia Dortmund created 4.05 xG against 0.76. The starting positions are contrasting again. Dortmund have won four of their last five matches and just came back from 0:2 down to beat Hoffenheim 3:2, while Villarreal have opened the season without a win and followed two draws with defeats to Alaves and Deportivo.
Niko Kovac does not see last year's result as a guide to the new meeting. He specifically highlighted Villarreal's technical quality and their ability to keep possession for long periods. Dortmund have squad problems of their own, particularly in defence, where the coach has to reshape the back line before the opening Champions League fixture.
Borussia Dortmund Form and xG
Across their last five matches Dortmund have averaged 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with 1.9 xG created against 1.4 allowed. At home the numbers are stronger: 2.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded from 2.2 xG against 1.1. Their record against opponents of a similar level is especially convincing - Eintracht Frankfurt, Augsburg, Mainz, Hoffenheim and Athletic produced an average score of 3.0:0.6 and an xG balance of 1.9 to 1.1.
The main restriction is in defence. Filippo Mane is out with a thigh injury, Nico Schlotterbeck is still recovering and is also suspended, Ramy Bensebaini serves a suspension too, while Emre Can remains unavailable. Daniel Svensson and Konstantinos Karetsas are fit and available. That preserves Kovac's options further forward but forces another reshuffle around Waldemar Anton at the back. The 3:2 win over Hoffenheim was not fully controlled in terms of chances either, with xG almost identical at 1.93 against 1.94.
Villarreal Form and xG
Villarreal's results have been worse than the quality of the chances they create. Across their last five matches they average 2.2 goals from 2.1 xG while conceding 1.8 from 1.3 xG allowed. Away from home the chance balance is almost perfectly level at 1.4 xG on both sides, but the actual average score works against the Spanish side: 1.3 scored and 1.5 conceded.
The gap between performance and results is even clearer against comparable opponents. Matches with Atletico, Athletic, Bayer Leverkusen, Tottenham and Rayo Vallecano produced 1.3 xG for Villarreal and the same 1.3 for their opponents, yet the average score was 0.8:1.8. Juan Foyth and Carlos Romero remain doubts before the trip to Dortmund. Inigo Perez described the start of the season as worrying after the Deportivo defeat and demanded an immediate correction, looking for a response in the Champions League.
xG Prediction and Betting Outlook
The model sees the match at 2.2:1.2 in Borussia Dortmund's favour. That edge supports the home win: Dortmund consistently create more than their opponents at home, while Villarreal have not yet converted respectable xG numbers into stable results. Dortmund's run adds another argument, with five wins from their last six matches and eleven victories across the last fourteen at home.
The hosts do not approach the game with an ideal defensive lineup, however, and Villarreal continue to generate enough chances of their own. Both teams to score therefore remains a logical call; it has landed in eighteen of Villarreal's last twenty-two matches. If the visitors convert one of their opportunities, Dortmund's attacking advantage also pushes the game beyond 2.5 goals. All three calls come together in the expected correct score of 2:1.
Borussia Dortmund vs Villarreal Betting Tip
Of the main options, the most reliable looks to be Borussia Dortmund to win. The selection is built on Dortmund's consistency at home and Villarreal's current failure to turn good chance creation into steady results. A stronger option for this match is also available to Premium subscribers.
