Liverpool begin another Champions League league phase against Atletico, a side they beat 3:2 at Anfield a year ago. That result extended the head-to-head run to three straight Liverpool wins, although both teams have opened the new season unevenly. After consecutive 2:2 draws, Liverpool finally beat Ipswich 2:0, while Atletico arrive following a 0:3 defeat to Athletic.
Andoni Iraola has a fresh attacking option in Bradley Barcola, who made his debut at Ipswich and is already pushing for more minutes. Several Liverpool players remain unavailable, while Atletico are still without Alexander Sorloth. Diego Simeone admitted after the defeat in Bilbao that his side lost concentration immediately after half-time and are still working through a period of transition.
Liverpool Form and xG
Liverpool's last five matches have produced averages of 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, with 2.0 xG created against 1.7 allowed. The results look less convincing than the volume of chances: they drew 1:1 with Brentford after creating 2.95 xG and finished 2:2 at Newcastle despite reaching 3.00 xG. Even the 2:0 win over Ipswich came from a relatively modest 0.87 xG, showing how much their finishing has fluctuated recently.
At Anfield the averages are stronger, with 1.8 xG created against 1.2 allowed. Against Brentford, Crystal Palace, Fulham, Newcastle and Brighton, Liverpool averaged 2.1 xG while allowing 1.4 and won four of those five matches. There are still squad restrictions before Wednesday: Hugo Ekitike, Conor Bradley and Giovanni Leoni are injured, Joe Gomez remains a doubt, while Federico Chiesa and Wataru Endo were not included in the Champions League squad.
Atletico Form and xG
Atletico's start has been even more volatile. Across their last five matches they average 1.6 goals scored and 2.2 conceded, with 1.1 xG created against 1.8 allowed. Villarreal generated 3.32 xG in a 2:2 draw, while Athletic needed only 1.56 xG to win 3:0 in the latest round. Between those games Atletico beat Sevilla 3:1 from 1.19 xG against 1.09.
The away numbers show the same vulnerability: 1.1 xG created against 1.7 allowed and an average score of 1.3:1.5. In matches against Arsenal, Valencia, Barcelona and Real Madrid, Simeone's side averaged 1.0 xG against 1.7. Sorloth remains unavailable for the trip to Anfield, while Arnau Ortiz is suspended. Julian Alvarez, however, is back in full training and appears much closer to full fitness.
xG Prediction and Correct Score
The projected xG is 2.1 to 1.1 in Liverpool's favour. The home win is supported by the hosts' edge in chance creation and by the recent head-to-head record: Liverpool have won the last three meetings with Atletico, including last year's game at Anfield when they produced 2.57 xG against 0.83.
Both teams to score still fits alongside Liverpool's advantage. Atletico have routes to chances through Alvarez, Baena and quick transitions after regaining possession, while the hosts have allowed enough opportunities themselves at the start of the season. If Atletico convert one of those openings, over 2.5 goals gains direct support from Liverpool's stronger attack. Another trend points the same way: both teams scored in eight of Liverpool's last nine matches. The expected correct score is 3:1.
Liverpool vs Atletico Betting Tip
Of the three main directions, over 2.5 goals looks the most robust. A straight Liverpool win depends more heavily on how efficiently Atletico use their transitions, while both teams to score requires the visitors to contribute. The total leaves both routes open: Liverpool's attacking edge can cover it alone, while an Atletico goal only increases the margin. Vote on the prediction on the match page and compare your view with other users.
