- What: Round of 16 EURO 2024, France vs Belgium
- Where: Germany, Düsseldorf
- When: July 1, 19:00 (local time – 18:00)
- Stadium: Merkur Spiel-Arena (51,500 seats)
This match features two teams with championship aspirations, though bookmakers have slightly different expectations for each. France is ranked as the fourth favorite, while Belgium is ninth. Both teams have seen their odds fall after lackluster performances in the group stage, but the knockout rounds may bring new momentum.
France
France has not lived up to expectations at all. They played all three matches with very low goal totals, much to the disappointment of their fans. They advanced from Group D in second place without losing a match, but they only managed one win. In the first round, they narrowly defeated Austria 1:0 thanks to an own goal. They controlled the game but struggled to create dangerous opportunities and were subdued by Austria’s physical play. In the second round, without Mbappe, they drew 0:0 against the Netherlands, again failing to convert possession into chances. In the third round, they drew 1:1 with Poland, with both goals coming from penalties despite France creating and missing several chances.
Despite their immense attacking potential, France did not score a single goal from open play in three matches, which is quite disappointing.
Belgium
Belgium is another team with high but unfulfilled expectations, leading the tournament in disallowed goals (three, all by Lukaku). They struggled to secure second place in Group E, resolving their qualification in the final match. In the first round, despite having a clear advantage, they lost 1:0 to Slovakia after conceding early and failing to equalize. In the second round, they defeated Romania 2:0, but the result was in doubt until the second goal late in the match. In the third round, they managed a 0:0 draw with Ukraine, enduring heavy pressure in the last 20 minutes and facing criticism from their fans.
With two out of three matches ending without goals, Belgium’s attack has been a major letdown, making it difficult for them to succeed.
Prediction
Playing a low-scoring game in the knockout stages is not viable, as neither of these teams can be considered lucky. To advance, they need to score from open play, and given the imperfections in both defenses, they should be able to surpass this modest goal total.
xGscore Prediction: Total Over 2
