- What: 3rd Round of Euro 2024, Group D, France – Poland
- Where: Germany, Dortmund
- When: June 25, 19:00 (local time – 18:00)
- Stadium: BVB-Stadion (65,600 seats)
Poland became the first team to lose mathematical chances of advancing from the group even before the start of the 3rd round. Even a win against France won’t help the “Cadra”, so the team’s motivation is likely to be low. France must avoid defeat to secure a smooth passage to the playoffs. Otherwise, finishing 3rd in the group could lead to a round of 16 clash with Spain, an undesirable opponent at this stage.
France
In the 1st round, they struggled past Austria with a 1:0 win. The Austrians played a very tough game, mercilessly fouling the French, and Mbappe even broke his nose, causing him to miss a match. The only goal was an own goal by Austria’s Weber – without his help, France didn’t create much.
In the 2nd round, everyone saw France without Mbappe, and it was a dull sight – 0:0. They had clear territorial advantage and took many shots, but created only a couple of real dangerous chances. The Dutch even scored, but Simons' goal was controversially disallowed by the referee.
Without Mbappe, the team regularly struggles, which should be a concern for Deschamps. In this game, Kylian might come on as a substitute if they can’t cope without him.
Poland
In the 1st round, they narrowly lost to strong Netherlands 2:1. The Dutch controlled the ball and put a lot of pressure, but Poland had good counterattacks and several opportunities. The match could have ended in a draw, but Weghorst, who came on as a substitute in the 81st minute, scored the winning goal in the 83rd.
In the 2nd round, they lost to Austria 3:1. The game was roughly equal in the 1st half. In the 2nd half, the Austrians overwhelmed the “Cadra” and scored 2 unanswered goals. Even the recovered Robert Lewandowski, who came on as a substitute, couldn’t turn the tide.
The team lost a lot just before the start of the Euro when 3 key forwards were ruled out due to injuries. Already then, dark clouds gathered, and Poland couldn’t cope in a very strong group.
Prediction
France must beat the unmotivated and not very strong opponent. Otherwise, their high ambitions and status as favorites will take a serious hit.
xGscore Prediction: France Win
