- What: 1st Round of EURO 2024, Group A, Germany vs. Scotland
- Where: Germany, Munich
- When: June 14, 10:00 PM (local time – 9:00 PM)
- Stadium: Allianz Arena (75,000 seats)
The opening match is always associated with special expectations from the audience, but it doesn't always meet them. For the teams, this is an important yet regular game. When everything is decided in one match, the likelihood of upsets increases significantly, and we are bound to see quite a few of them.
Germany
Almost all experts and bookmakers distinctly favor the Germans. This is justified – they are the giants, playing at home, with no issues in their lineup, and they are coming into the tournament on a wave of good results.
Germany, as the host of EURO, entered the tournament directly, bypassing the qualifiers – which is both good and bad. The team played 15 friendlies after the 2022 World Cup with varying degrees of success. However, in the past 1.5 years, they haven't had a single official match against a truly motivated opponent, which could be a problem.
Before Nagelsmann's arrival, the friendly matches were mostly disastrous, but that's in the past. Julian took over the team in October and things started to improve: in 8 matches, there were 4 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses. They never won by a large margin throughout the preparation cycle. In 13 out of 15 games, they scored 2 goals or less. In 4 games, they didn’t score at all. The last 4 matches: undefeated – 3 wins and 1 draw.
Scotland
The Scots are under no pressure regarding the result – everyone already considers them the losers in the opening match. This is their great advantage. Despite being in a serious slump since autumn, they can punish anyone. Fast counterattacks and dangerous set pieces can turn any game around. Last spring, Spain suffered in the EURO qualifiers – despite having total dominance, they lost to Scotland 2-0.
The team is clearly in crisis: in the last 9 matches, only 1 win – over Gibraltar, 2-0. Additionally, 3 draws and 4 losses. It's important to note: 3 of the 4 losses were against superpowers – England, Spain, France, and the Netherlands. They also lost to Northern Ireland during the campaign. The draws were against non-top teams: Georgia – 2-2, Norway (without Haaland) – 3-3, and Finland – 2-2. Against strong opponents, with rare exceptions, they don't score more than 1 goal.
Prediction
Germany didn’t look very convincing in their last 2 matches: Ukraine – 0-0 and Greece – 2-1. The “Bundesmaschine” is not running as it should yet. At the same time, the Scots will definitely "fight" – something they are excellent at.
The British certainly shouldn’t count on a win. However, they will fight for a draw and definitely should not lose by a large margin.
xGscore Prediction: Scotland: Handicap (+2)
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