- What: EURO 2024 Quarterfinals, England vs Switzerland
- Where: Germany, Düsseldorf
- When: July 6, 19:00 (local time – 18:00)
- Stadium: Merkur Spiel-Arena (51,500 seats)
Nominally, this match should be clear-cut, as the absolute favorite faces an underdog – according to bookmakers, England is the No. 1 contender for the title, while Switzerland is No. 7. However, the dynamics and morale of the teams are opposite. While England struggled against fairly average opponents, Switzerland played successfully against Germany and Italy.
England
England's journey has been nightmarish so far, without facing any top teams. Their football is lackluster, with hard-fought results – in the four matches played, they have scored only three goals in regular time. Their opponents were not intimidating: Denmark, Slovenia, Serbia, and Slovakia. In the playoffs, they narrowly avoided elimination against Slovakia – trailing 1-0, they scored in the last seconds and then again in added time. Despite having the easiest path to the final among the top teams, their current form does not bode well for success. A dismal sight!
England at EURO: No. 1 in shots hitting the post – 3. No. 1 in accurate long passes – 23.3 per match. No. 2 in ball possession – 59.5%. No. 2 in accurate passes – 593 per match. No English player ranks in the personal TOPs for any important metrics. Not impressive for a favorite.
Switzerland
A solid team gaining more confidence with each match. They haven't lost a single match at EURO. In the group stage, they played carefully, maximizing their opportunities. Their 1-1 draw with Germany, which almost ended in a Swiss victory until Fullkrug saved Germany in the 92nd minute, is a testament to their approach. The next match against Italy showcased Switzerland’s full strength – they outplayed Spalletti’s team like no one else and scored two goals, which hadn't happened since November last year. This team can indeed "topple the crown" from the favorite!
Switzerland at EURO: Fabian Schär is No. 1 in accurate long passes – 6 per match. Michel Aebischer and Remo Freuler are No. 2 in assists – 2 each. The team's limited representation in the tournament TOPs is fully compensated by excellent balance in all components.
Prediction
England does not seem capable of overwhelming a team like Switzerland right now. The match is likely to be low-scoring and continue England's struggles, as they will neither play well nor let their opponent play. Although it may be unusual to predict a clean loss for England, a draw with a Swiss advantage seems most likely.
Prediction xGscore: Switzerland will not lose
