Real Madrid open their Champions League campaign after suffering their first defeat of the new season, and the result in Seville barely reflected the performance: Madrid lost 0:1 to Real Betis despite creating 3.29 xG against 0.95. Jose Mourinho kept his response ahead of Inter simple: winning matters more than playing well again and leaving without the result. There is also a personal angle for the Portuguese coach - Inter were the club he led to the Champions League title in 2010.
The first European night of Mourinho's second spell in Madrid also comes with a heavily reshaped midfield. Eduardo Camavinga, Arda Guler and Bernardo Silva are suspended, while Aurelien Tchouameni has only just returned to full training and looks more likely to start on the bench than in the XI.
Real Madrid Form and xG
Before the Betis setback, Real Madrid had won four matches in a row. Across their last five games they averaged 2.8 goals scored from 2.8 xG created, while opponents managed only 0.9 xG. The home performances have been especially convincing: in their two August matches at the Bernabeu, Madrid scored four against both Malaga and Real Sociedad, creating 2.92 and 3.21 xG respectively.
The broader home numbers underline that pressure even more, with averages of 2.5 xG created against 1.0 allowed. Against opponents of a similar level, Madrid won all five matches in the sample, including games against Juventus, Benfica, Villarreal and Athletic, with an average xG balance of 2.5 to 1.1. The squad situation does force Mourinho to alter his usual midfield, though: three midfielders are suspended, Tchouameni is still building fitness, while Eder Militao and Rodrygo remain injured.
Inter Form and xG
Inter arrive in Madrid after opening the season with three wins, most recently a lively 3:2 victory over Napoli. Across their last five matches they averaged 2.4 goals from 2.5 xG created, while opponents produced 1.3 xG. Their away numbers are calmer but consistent: 1.9 goals scored and 1.9 xG created against 1.0 allowed. In the latest trip to Cagliari, Inter held their opponents to just 0.43 xG.
Cristian Chivu explained before the Napoli game that Inter want to dominate, commit plenty of players forward and accept the risk that comes after losing possession. That matters at the Bernabeu because the visitors are unlikely to abandon their identity simply because of the opponent's status. Federico Dimarco picked up a minor knee problem against Napoli but trained with the group on Monday wearing support, while Djed Spence continues his recovery and remains short of full fitness.
xG Prediction and Correct Score
The expected xGscore is 2.5:1.2, with the model calling 2:1 as the correct score. That immediately shows the main gap between the sides: Real Madrid retain the higher chance volume, but Inter still have enough attacking potential to stay involved.
A home win is supported by Madrid's record at the Bernabeu, with the last five matches in the supplied run all ending in victories. Inter, however, are not travelling simply to defend - Chivu's approach demands initiative and numbers in attack, while their away figures show they can create regularly. That gives both teams to score a separate foundation. If Inter convert one of their opportunities, over 2.5 goals fits naturally alongside Madrid's attacking edge. The head-to-head adds another detail: Real won all four meetings in the supplied data, although Inter generated more xG in both games played in 2021. At the projected score, all three calls remain aligned.
Real Madrid vs Inter Expert Pick
Madrid's powerful home attack meets an Inter side that continue to play boldly under Chivu even against strong opposition. The selection is both teams to score: Madrid's reshaped midfield can leave the visitors room to build attacks of their own, while the hosts consistently create at the other end. Vote on the prediction on the match page and compare your view with other users.
