The season starts at St James' Park with two debuts: Matthias Jaissle takes charge of Newcastle in a competitive match for the first time, Andoni Iraola does the same at Liverpool. The two coaches share a method - at Salzburg and at Bournemouth their sides lived on pressing, running volume and quick transitions.
They arrive in very different shape, though. Newcastle lost Bruno Guimarães, Gordon, Tonali and Trippier over the summer, and Jaissle inherited the squad eighteen days before kick-off. Liverpool's worry is elsewhere: in the friendlies with Leeds and Monaco they led 2:0 twice and gave both games away after the break.
Newcastle Form and xG
Newcastle played open football at home last season: 1.9 scored and 1.6 conceded on average, xG 2.0 - 1.5. They created plenty in front of their own crowd, but their box was rarely quiet either - against Chelsea, Man City and Arsenal it came to 1.8 xG with 1.9 allowed.
The run-in was ragged: 3:1 against Brighton from 2.99 xG, 3:1 against West Ham, then 0:2 at Fulham with 0.34 created. Across ten meetings with Liverpool the averages sit at 1.0 xG against 2.4 - this opponent has not given the hosts an even game in years. After the summer exodus Jaissle is building a new structure on the move, and the opening weekend adds absences: Livramento is a doubt after surgery, Schär has not played since a groin problem, Miley has only just returned to work after a fracture. Horníček, signed from Braga, debuts in goal.
Liverpool Form and xG
Liverpool tilt the other way: 1.8 scored against 2.0 conceded over the last five rounds, xG 1.5 - 1.7. The defence creaked even when the attack worked: 1:1 with Brentford from 2.95 xG, 2:4 at Aston Villa, 2:3 at Man United.
Away to the upper half - Nottingham Forest, Bournemouth, Fulham, Tottenham, Brentford, Crystal Palace - it came to 1.7 scored and 1.8 conceded with xG 1.7 - 1.9. Iraola has not reinforced that line yet: Gomez is out for a month with a muscle injury, 21-year-old Jacquet is being lined up alongside Van Dijk after missing half of pre-season, and Mac Allister and Muñoz were the last back from their break following the World Cup final. Up front things look settled: Isak, who left Newcastle a year ago, and Wirtz both scored in the friendlies.
xG Prediction and Exact Score
The xGscore model has the teams working their way to 1.6 and 1.8 expected goals, with 1:2 to the visitors as the likely finish.
That result is built on mutual risk. Both coaches demand a vertical game and a high line, both teams have scored in nine straight matches at Newcastle, and Liverpool have not gone six games without goals at each end. Hence BTTS Yes.
Over 2.5 follows: when each side has a route to goal and the hosts have to open up under a new coach, a third goal arrives quickly. An away win in normal time comes down to squad quality - Liverpool have finished forwards, Newcastle a rebuilt defence and a goalkeeper without a league appearance.
Newcastle vs Liverpool Expert Pick
Of the four options in the forecast the steadiest is over 2.5 goals. The away win hangs on one moment and the exact score on a lottery, while goals in this pairing arrive whatever the shape of the game: five of the last six meetings went past two. The recommended stake for this match is available to Premium subscribers.
