Over the summer PSG added a second consecutive Champions League trophy to their fifth straight Ligue 1 title, yet Luis Enrique's side have opened the new season cautiously: 2:2 at Lille and 2:2 at Rennes, four points dropped already. Monaco under Filipe Luis have taken the maximum - 1:0 at Le Havre and 2:0 against Marseille at home.
The visitors' squad picture shifted within the past week: the club terminated Paul Pogba's contract after another thigh injury, never having got a full season out of the Frenchman. The main source of intrigue, though, comes from March, when the Monegasques left the Parc des Princes with a 3:1 win.
PSG Form and xG
The home numbers remain the best in the league: across seventeen matches at their own ground PSG scored 2.4 and conceded 0.7 per game, off 2.3 xG created against 0.8 allowed. That run includes 5:0 wins over Marseille and Rennes and 3:0 results against Lille, Metz and Nantes - visitors to Paris barely reach the opposition box.
The slip-ups did happen, and all of them stood out: 1:3 to Monaco, 1:2 to Lyon off 3.02 xG created, draws of 3:3 with Strasbourg and 2:2 with Lorient. Against opponents of this same calibre it works out at 2.5 scored and 1.5 conceded off 2.5 xG created, but only two wins in six. The recent stretch is a warning too: across the last five matches the team created 1.3 xG and allowed 1.6, a ratio rarely seen from this side.
Monaco Form and xG
On the road Monaco live on balance: 1.6 scored and 1.8 conceded across seventeen matches, off 1.6 xG created and exactly the same allowed. The range is wide - from 5:3 at Nantes and 3:2 at Lens to 0:1 at Brest and 1:4 at Rennes.
The start of this season under the new coach has been tighter: two matches, two clean sheets, 1.63 and 1.68 xG created. Filipe Luis clearly demands more discipline at the back than the team showed a year ago. The sample against opponents of PSG's level holds only one match, so it cannot carry any weight. The head-to-head record speaks louder: the sides met four times last season, and the Monegasques left Paris unbeaten twice.
xG Prediction and Exact Score
The model expects 2.4:1.1, and it names the correct score immediately: 2:1.
That result carries the full set of calls. The home win rests on a creative gap of more than a goal. Over 2.5 goals is covered by this scoreline alone. Both teams to score leans on the head-to-head: in eight of the last ten meetings between these clubs both sides found the net, including each of the last three.
An honest caveat belongs here too. At home PSG concede less than a goal a game, and Monaco's away run of goals at both ends was broken in the most recent round, with a clean sheet at Le Havre. The flow of play does not change, though: visitors to Paris almost always get their moments in transition, and Monaco under Filipe Luis shoot rarely but accurately.
PSG vs Monaco Betting Tip
Of the four calls for this game the choice falls on both teams to score. The result depends on which version of the hosts turns up after a sluggish start, the total on their finishing, but goals at both ends are propped up by the sturdiest line in this pairing: these two rarely keep each other out. Agree with the call, or expect a clean win for the favourite? Vote on the prediction on the match page.
