The Ohio derby returns to the calendar at ScottsMiracle-Gro Field, and the table separates these sides further than this fixture usually allows: Cincinnati sit fifth in the East on 23 points, Columbus eleventh on 16, below the playoff line. The restart went very differently for the two. The hosts lost 1:2 at home to New York City, stretching their run to four defeats in six rounds, while the visitors won a 4:3 shootout with Vancouver for back-to-back league wins.
Columbus Crew Form and xG
In meetings with this opponent the hosts' attack runs thin: across the last ten derbies it reads 13 scored and 19 conceded, averaging 1.0 xG created against 1.8 allowed. Big nights have happened in the series, but rarely and a while ago: 4:0 in November 2025, 3:0 in August 2023. In between sit 0:1, 1:2, 0:0, 2:4.
The 2026 season backs the picture up: four wins, four draws and eight defeats from sixteen rounds, 22 goals scored, and 25th place overall - only six points clear of bottom side Philadelphia. Laurent Courtois is without three: Brooks Lennon, Andre Gomes and Wessam Abou Ali are all out. Daniel Gazdag, who scored off the bench against New York City, may start, but otherwise the hosts enter the derby with the same group whose defending fell apart on Wednesday.
Cincinnati Form and xG
The visitors have been the more inventive side in this pairing: 19 goals across ten meetings, 1.8 xG created on average and only 1.0 allowed. Recent derbies have turned on their pressure - 4:0 and 2:1 in November, 2:0 in May 2025. The November 2025 fixture ended in a 2:1 home win for them.
The flip side is the defence. Forty goals conceded this season, second worst in the league, and three shipped to Vancouver on the restart, with Miles Robinson pulled just past the hour. Up front, though, Pat Noonan has no concerns: Evander and Kévin Denkey give the side a route to goal both in build-up and in transition. The visitors carry no absentees - the squad is fully fit.
xG Prediction and Correct Score
The model hands territorial edge to the hosts: 1.6:1.2 on expected goals. The gap is small and does not turn into a convincing advantage - in regulation the draw looks likelier.
Columbus will keep the ball and try to hold a tighter line after Wednesday, but Cincinnati have lived on quick runs in behind all season, and the hosts leave that space open in this fixture regularly. Both have a route to goal: the visitors' attack has produced seven across the last two rounds, while the hosts' defence concedes in almost every derby. Under 2.5 is no rarity in this pairing either - six of the last ten meetings finished with two goals or fewer.
Expected correct score - 1:1.
Columbus Crew vs Cincinnati Expert Pick
xGscore experts go with away team not to lose. The bet runs wider than the draw and covers both outcomes the derby and the numbers point to: Cincinnati do not lose on the road in this series, and the hosts arrive with a defence in pieces and three first-choice players missing. Recommended stake for this match is available to Premium subscribers.
