Inter Miami continue to win without Lionel Messi and Rodrigo De Paul, who have been given additional recovery time following the World Cup final. Luis Suárez has assumed the leading role in attack, scoring six goals across his last three matches and delivering the victory over CF Montréal from the penalty spot.
The game could also mark Casemiro's first home appearance after making his debut in Montreal. Columbus Crew arrive following an emotional 2:1 victory over FC Cincinnati, although their away results have been significantly worse than their home form. There is also uncertainty around Miami's selection: Messi and De Paul's availability has not been confirmed, while Germán Berterame is recovering from a serious collision.
Inter Miami Form and xG
Inter have won six consecutive matches and averaged 3.4 goals from 2.9 xG across their last five. Their attacking numbers are even higher at home, where they generate 3.1 xG per game. Miami produced 4.91 xG against Philadelphia Union, 3.63 against Portland and 3.16 against Orlando, showing that their scoring record is supported by a consistently high volume of quality chances.
The victory in Montreal was less convincing. Miami recorded 18 shots but generated 1.74 xG while allowing the opposition 1.78. Suárez decided the match with his ninth league goal of the season. Casemiro immediately took his place in midfield alongside Yannick Bright and Telasco Segovia, adding experience during transitions between attack and defense. Berterame has been discharged from hospital after suffering shoulder and nose injuries, but no return date has been announced. Even without him and Messi, the coaching staff retain several attacking options.
Columbus Crew Form and xG
Columbus defeated Cincinnati through Jamal Thiaré's header from a corner and Dániel Gazdag's penalty. Patrick Schulte made four saves to protect the advantage. Crew have averaged 1.6 xG and conceded 1.4 goals across their last five matches, so their overall form is not as poor as their away record suggests.
The main problems emerge on the road. Columbus have won only one of eight away matches while conceding an average of 2.1 goals. However, they scored in seven of those eight games and continued to create opportunities even in defeat. Max Arfsten remains a key player, recording nine goal contributions across all competitions and contributing to a goal in eight of his last 12 appearances. He and Steven Moreira are due to play in the MLS All-Star Game on July 29, leaving two important Crew players with a short recovery period before the trip to Miami.
xG Prediction and Betting Tips
Inter Miami will look to move the game towards the opposition penalty area immediately, using Suárez's movement, attacking runs from wide areas and Casemiro's passing from deeper positions. Columbus can respond through Arfsten, Gazdag and set pieces, but their commitment to playing short passes out of defense may leave space after turnovers.
A Miami victory is supported by their winning run and Columbus' results away from home. The visitors still have a realistic path to goal, having scored in almost every road match, while both teams have regularly found the net in Miami's home fixtures. If both attacks convert even a portion of their chances, the total should move above 2.5 goals.
The model projects 2.7 xG for Inter Miami and 1.4 for Columbus Crew. That advantage supports an expected correct score of 3:1: the hosts should create more opportunities, but Columbus' attacking activity gives the visitors a reasonable chance of responding.
Inter Miami vs Columbus Crew Betting Tip
Miami continue to offer high attacking quality even without confirmation of Messi's return, while Suárez has compensated for the captain's absence with his finishing. Columbus' poor away form and the possible fatigue of two key players further strengthen the hosts' position. The selection is Inter Miami to win.
