The Cascadia derby returns to Providence Park with the two sides heading in opposite directions. Two weeks ago these same teams met in Seattle, and Portland tore the hosts apart 5:1 - Jack Cassidy's first game after Phil Neville's exit. The Sounders have lost twice more since, 0:1 to Philadelphia and 1:3 to Austin, and arrive on a five-game losing run. Portland, by contrast, have taken four of their last five at home.
Portland Timbers Form and xG
At home Portland are far more productive than their season as a whole: 2.3 goals per game on average, 1.5 xG created to 1.3 allowed on their own ground. Across the last five matches the side has produced 2.0 xG per game - a 2:1 win over Real Salt Lake off 2.2 xG, a 2:2 draw with Dallas, the 5:1 rout of Seattle.
The home attack barely stops: over 2.5 has landed in 13 of 14 home games, both teams have scored in 18 of 21. Kristoffer Velde and Kevin Kelsy drive the creativity - the Venezuelan has 5 goals and 3 assists this season. Juan Mosquera, Omir Fernandez and Gage Guerra are out, but the front line that put five past Seattle is intact.
Seattle Sounders Form and xG
On the road the Sounders are toothless: 0.5 xG created on average against sides of Portland's level, just 0.7 goals per away game. Their last five outings brought five defeats with a combined score of 2:9, and in three of them they failed to score at all.
The squad list makes it worse: Cristian and Alex Roldan, Yeimar Gomez, Kim Kee-hee, Ryan Sailor and Pedro de la Vega are all out, with the treatment room no lighter after the seven-week break. Albert Rusnak remains the main creator and Jordan Morris is chasing form after a thigh injury, but an attack that has scored just 17 this season ranks third from bottom in the West.
xG Prediction and Correct Score
The model hands the hosts a clear edge - 1.8 against 1.0 on expected goals. The gap rests on the difference in form: Portland create steadily at home, the Sounders barely reach the box away.
The hosts should score first and keep pushing - their home attack does not ease off, and a Seattle defence missing half its first choice already shipped five in this very fixture. Both teams to score also reads on: even in defeat the Sounders occasionally reply, and Rusnak can conjure a goal from nothing. That feeds over 2.5 too - Portland rarely play a frugal game at home.
Expected correct score - 2:1.
Portland Timbers vs Seattle Sounders Betting Tip
Of every market the steadiest is a Portland win. The hosts have found form under a new coach and dismantled this same opponent 5:1 two weeks ago, while the Sounders arrive on five straight defeats and without half their first team. Recommended stake for this match is available to Premium subscribers.
