- What: 1st round of EURO 2024, Group D, Austria vs France
- Where: Germany, Düsseldorf
- When: June 17, 22:00 (local time - 21:00)
- Stadium: Merkur Spiel-Arena (51,500 seats)
The French team, the current World Cup runners-up, are perennial favorites at any football tournament they enter. Experts and bookmakers place France as the second favorite for the trophy at this EURO, just slightly behind England. However, among the top teams, they are known for occasional lapses in focus, as evidenced by their exit in the Round of 16 at the previous EURO 2021 to a modest Swiss side.
Austria
Austria is a very solid team that has significantly improved in recent years. They qualified from a very tough group in second place, just one point behind Belgium and well ahead of Sweden. They dropped points only in two matches against Belgium out of their eight group games: one loss (3-2) and one draw (1-1). The remaining six matches were victories with a total score of 14 goals scored and 3 conceded.
After the qualifiers, they played five friendlies, all against strong opponents, and didn’t lose any. They secured victories against Germany (2-0), Slovakia (2-0), Turkey (6-1), and Serbia (2-1). Their last match was a 1-1 draw with Switzerland. Austria scored in every match they played – 14 out of 14 games with goals, and in 10 of these, they scored 2 or more goals. Impressive!
France
France had a triumphant qualifying campaign, finishing first in a strong group, facing little resistance from the Netherlands, Greece, Ireland, and Gibraltar. They won every match except for the last one, where they drew with Greece. They scored 14 goals against Gibraltar! The overall goal difference in the group was 29 goals scored and 3 conceded. They won 6 out of 8 qualifying matches with clean sheets, but only three were big wins – two of these against Gibraltar.
Throughout the cycle, they played six friendlies. They lost two – both to Germany (2-1 and 2-0). They won against Scotland (4-1), Chile (3-2), and Luxembourg (3-0). Their last match was a "boring" 0-0 draw with Canada. Overall, their results were mediocre.
Prediction
France is undoubtedly the favorite for this match, but it’s not a given! Austria lost only one match in the entire cycle to Belgium and by just one goal. France achieved their few significant victories mostly at home. Among respectable teams, the only notable big wins were against the Netherlands (4-0) and, with some reservation, against Scotland (4-1) – but that was a friendly, which is a different context. France struggles against strong and particularly disciplined opponents.
Prediction xGscore: Austria: Handicap (+1.5)
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