These two meet in the semi-final of a third major tournament in a row. At Euro 2024 Spain won 2:1 and went on to lift the trophy; a year later in the Nations League they held on through a nine-goal thriller, 5:4, and both times France went home empty-handed. Now it is Dallas, 14 July and the highest stakes of all: the winner meets England or Argentina in the World Cup final. France arrive with six wins from six and eight goals from Mbappe, the leader in the Golden Boot race. Spain answer with a different trump card: one goal conceded across the entire tournament and Mikel Merino, the man who settled the closing stages of the last two knockout rounds. For Deschamps this is a shot at a third straight final; for La Roja, a first final since 2010.
France Form and xG
Six matches, six wins - and 13:1 on goals across the last five, past Morocco, Paraguay, Sweden, Norway and Iraq. That works out at around 2.5 xG created per game against 0.7 conceded, and all three knockout ties were kept clean. Mbappe picked up an ankle knock in the quarter-final but should be fit for Spain; Olise, with six assists, is the tournament's leading provider. The one selection question is the pivot: Tchouameni has missed two matches with a thigh problem, and Kone has stepped in convincingly.
Against sides of Spain's level the picture shifts. In their last seven meetings with top teams - Brazil, Argentina, England, Belgium - France allowed almost 1.9 xG at their own end on average and conceded in six of the seven, yet still won through cold finishing: three of those games ended 2:1 in their favour. Ceding territory, absorbing pressure and punishing in transition is their familiar mode in matches of this calibre.
Spain Form and xG
La Roja are built on defence: one goal conceded across the whole tournament, with Unai Simon's clean-sheet run of 649 minutes setting a World Cup record before it ended in the quarter-final against Belgium. Across their last five games opponents managed under 0.4 xG per match. The one driving them forward is not Yamal - still finding form after injury and without a goal or assist since the group opener - but Oyarzabal, with four goals, and Merino, who came off the bench to score the winner against both Portugal and Belgium. There are absentees - Nico Williams and Yeremy Pino are out injured - but Pedri is ready to return alongside Rodri.
Even so, against top-tier sides Spain reliably find a goal of their own: across their last seven such matches - Germany, Portugal, Italy, England - they were kept off the scoresheet only once, in a goalless draw six years ago. Controlling the ball through Rodri and Pedri and staying patient for late chances is their default plan for nights like this.
xG Prediction and Exact Score
The shape of the night reads clearly in advance: Spain will take the ball, France will cede territory and live on transitions. Yet both have a path to goal - French counters produced goals in both recent meetings, and Spain have repeatedly worn opponents down with late strikes off the bench in this knockout run - which is why "both teams to score - yes" reads as the natural extension of the analysis.
An open game, though, is not the bet: the cost of a mistake in a semi-final is at its highest, both sides know how to slow the tempo, and the total points down here - under 2.5. In regulation the xGscore model hands no one a decisive edge: projected xG of 1.6 against 1.4, a token France plus within parity, so a draw over ninety minutes is the base outcome. The expected exact score is 1:1, with the tie settled in extra time or on penalties.
France vs Spain Expert Pick
The main argument is the head-to-head: both recent semi-finals between these two saw both teams score, even though each began with cautious plans. Add that France's attack breaks down even top defences with barely a miss, and that Spain almost always find a goal against evenly matched opposition. The pick is Both Teams to Score - Yes. The recommended stake for this semi-final is available to Premium subscribers.
