- What: 1st round of EURO-2024, Group A, Hungary – Switzerland
- Where: Germany, Cologne
- When: June 15, 16:00 (local time – 15:00)
- Stadium: Rhein Energie Stadion (46,000 seats)
An extremely complicated match in terms of trends and probable outcomes. This sentiment is mostly shared by experts and bookmakers. Either of these teams can emerge victorious, not only in their head-to-head encounter but also against stronger opponents.
Hungary
Very confidently qualified for EURO, finishing first in their group, although it was not the strongest group – the main competitors were Serbia and Montenegro. Hungary did not lose a single match out of 8 in the group, drawing 3 of them. Additionally, in the final stage of preparation for EURO, they played 4 friendlies very confidently. They achieved 3 "clean sheet" victories: against Turkey – 1:0, Kosovo – 2:0, and Israel – 3:0. They had 1 loss to Ireland 2:1 in a tough match.
Switzerland
Struggled to qualify for EURO, finishing 2nd in their group, which was not strong at all. They fell far behind Romania and barely edged out Israel. They dropped points in the last 4 consecutive qualification matches. They heavily rely on draws – 7 out of 14 matches in the cycle. Furthermore, they shared points even with very weak opponents – twice with Kosovo and with Belarus. However, they only had 1 loss out of 14 matches – to Romania 1:0.
Prediction
Considering the approximate equality of the opponents' potentials, we should pay close attention to how the teams performed against opponents of their class or stronger. In the preparation cycle for EURO, Switzerland had 3 such matches: draws against Denmark 0:0 and Austria 1:1, and a victory over Ireland 1:0.
Hungary was more active and played 5 times against strong teams: victories over Turkey 1:0 and twice over Serbia 2:1, a draw with the Czech Republic 1:1, and a loss to Ireland 2:1. In the last match, Hungary had full advantage in all components but conceded an annoying goal in the 92nd minute.
In these matches, Hungary scored an average of 1.4 goals per game, while Switzerland only 0.67 goals. We expect this pattern to continue in EURO – Hungary should at least not lose.
xGscore Prediction: Hungary: Handicap (0), Odds - 2.5
