- What: 1st round of EURO 2024, Group B, Italy vs Albania
- Where: Germany, Dortmund
- When: June 15, 22:00 (local time - 21:00)
- Stadium: Westfalenstadion (81,000 seats)
It seems everything is already clear in this match – the current European champion is testing the debutant (for Albanians, this is their second European Championship in history). However, there is a nuance – Spalletti needs to avoid underestimating the modest opponent and convey this to his team, finding the motivation for them to come out and play seriously. Without this, small but daring teams often greatly upset the favorites.
Italy
The 2020 European champion is a formidable force, but again, there are nuances. Shortly after their title win, they experienced a downturn. The team sensationally missed the World Cup in Qatar. Later, they almost missed out on this EURO as well. Only in the last qualifying round did they snatch 2nd place from Ukraine, drawing a "lackluster" head-to-head match 0:0 and surpassing the blue-and-yellows only on goal difference.
Last summer, Spalletti replaced Mancini, but the situation has not fundamentally changed – the team is "limping" and obtaining results laboriously, yet they are still obtaining them. During the preparation cycle for the EURO, they usually secured the necessary points with a few slips. In the group, they lost 2 matches – to England, predictably and without options, 2:1 and 3:1, and drew 2 matches – with North Macedonia 1:1 and Ukraine 0:0. They won the remaining 4 games, 3 of them with a margin of 2 goals or more.
Since spring, they have played 4 friendlies: 1 draw with Turkey 0:0 and 3 wins "for morale" – Venezuela 2:1, Ecuador 2:0, and Bosnia 1:0. They likely rehearsed the match against Albania with Bosnia.
Albania
Triumphantly reached their second EURO in history and the second in the last 8 years. Fantastic progress! They passed through a group that was not the toughest but not the easiest either, finishing in 1st place. The main competitors were the Czech Republic and Poland.
They played 8 group matches with only 1 loss – away to Poland 1:0. They won 4 matches and drew 3. At home, they did not concede a single goal and scored 3 against the Czechs. However, their sudden success went to their heads, and in the last 2 rounds, the Albanians dropped points against clear outsiders: Moldova – 1:1 and the Faroe Islands – 0:0.
Since spring, they played 4 friendlies and lost the first 2: Chile 3:0 and Sweden 1:0. It was a sad series. Just before the EURO, they consoled themselves with 2 wins against very modest opponents: Liechtenstein 3:0 and Azerbaijan 3:1.
Prediction
The "Albanian miracle" has noticeably deflated over the past six months, and it is unlikely that the team will suddenly take off, even to the extent of beating the "slumping" European champions. It is very important for Italy to win, as without 3 points from Albania, there is no point in going further.
Prediction xGscore: Italy: Handicap (-1)
Evaluate the prediction and find out the results of user voting at the end of the page.
