- What: 1st round of EURO 2024, Group D, Poland vs Netherlands
- Where: Germany, Hamburg
- When: June 16, 16:00 (local time - 15:00)
- Stadium: Volksparkstadion (57,000 seats)
The Dutch team is almost always among the favorites at major tournaments and definitely ranks as one of the most promising and talented teams. This has been the case for decades and across many generations. However, despite their immense talent, fortune has often eluded them in terms of trophies – with just one EURO win in 1988 and numerous second and third-place finishes in various European and World Championships. A new campaign and a new challenge await.
Poland
Poland had a weak qualifying campaign, finishing 3rd in their group, behind Albania and the Czech Republic, and failing to secure a direct spot. The UEFA Nations League provided a lifeline with its convoluted mechanism for three additional teams to qualify for the EURO. Poland faced relatively easy opponents in the playoffs, defeating Estonia 5-1 and Wales 0-0 (5-4 on penalties).
They played only two friendlies in June, winning both: 3-1 against Ukraine and 2-1 against Turkey. They played a defensive game, utilizing effective and sharp counterattacks and set-pieces.
However, these recent matches have also brought significant challenges. Three key forwards – Lewandowski, Milik, and Swiderski – are injured. The first two haven't even made it to the match squad. It will be very tough.
Netherlands
The Netherlands approach EURO 2024 in excellent form and spirits, having qualified from a strong group featuring Greece, Ireland, Gibraltar, and France (who are also in this EURO group). They performed steadily in the qualifiers, losing only to France and winning all other matches – five of them with clean sheets and three by a margin of three goals or more.
Since spring, they have played four friendlies against strong opponents: they lost to Germany 2-1 but convincingly defeated Scotland 4-0, Canada 4-0, and Iceland 4-0. This looks very impressive.
They have won 9 of their last 12 matches. Eight of these victories were with clean sheets, and six were by a margin of three goals or more.
Prediction
Even without the injuries, Poland had slim chances of success, as the Dutch squad is worth four times more – 800 million vs. 200 million euros. But after the injury crisis, only a miracle could bring points to Poland. Additionally, this is likely to affect the team's morale as well.
Prediction xGscore: Netherlands: Handicap (-1)
