- What: 1st round of EURO 2024, Group E, Romania vs Ukraine
- Where: Germany, Munich
- When: June 17, 16:00 (local time - 15:00)
- Stadium: Allianz Arena (75,000 seats)
According to FIFA rankings, Ukraine is theoretically the second favorite to advance from the group, behind the absolute favorite Belgium. However, this needs to be proven on the pitch, starting today, as there is no clear underdog in the group – the three teams are of equal class. The Yellow-Blues have shown they can tackle difficult tasks, but they almost always do so through immense challenges.
Romania
Romania secured their spot at EURO by confidently finishing first in a fairly even group, albeit without any top teams. They finished 5 points ahead of Switzerland. Among their opponents were Israel, Belarus, Kosovo, and Andorra. They went unbeaten in 10 matches, with 4 draws and 6 wins, and an overall goal difference of 16 goals scored and 5 conceded. However, excluding the less representative matches against Andorra, their record is 10 goals scored and 5 conceded in 8 matches, indicating a rather conservative style of play.
Since spring, they have played 4 friendlies against weak opponents and failed to win any of them. They drew 3 times with Northern Ireland (1-1), Bulgaria (0-0), and Liechtenstein (0-0), and lost to a relatively strong Colombia (3-2).
Out of 14 matches in the cycle, the team scored more than 2 goals only once (against Andorra). They won only 3 of those 14 matches by a margin of 2 goals or more, twice against Andorra and once against Kosovo. This is a rather modest result.
Ukraine
Ukraine was placed in the "group of death" with England and Italy, narrowly missing second place to Italy due to a goalless draw in the final round. However, the Yellow-Blues qualified for EURO through the Nations League, defeating Bosnia and Herzegovina (2-1) and Iceland (2-1).
In early June, they played 3 friendlies against strong opponents: a loss to Poland (3-1), a draw with Germany (0-0), and a win over Moldova (4-0).
During the cycle, they played 6 matches against super top teams: Germany, England, and Italy. They lost only 2 of these 6 matches: away games against England (2-0) and Italy (2-1). The other 4 games were draws. The team is accustomed to facing serious opponents.
Prediction
The current Ukrainian team is considered the strongest version of itself in years, and the results confirm this. Despite potential difficulties, they are expected to secure points against an opponent of Romania's caliber.
Prediction xGscore: Ukraine Win
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