- What: 3rd Round EURO 2024, Group E, Slovakia vs Romania
- Where: Germany, Frankfurt am Main
- When: June 26, 19:00 (local time – 18:00)
- Stadium: Waldstadion (51,500 seats)
Slovakia and Romania are part of the most complex group where all teams have equal points. Romania leads the group, albeit insecurely, only due to the second tie-breaking criterion – goals scored. All teams have excellent chances for everything, from 1st place to elimination. It will be an intriguing round.
Slovakia
In the 1st round, Slovakia cautiously but effectively defeated a very strong Belgium team 1-0. The Belgians applied significant pressure in the 2nd half, and although Lukaku scored two goals, both were rightly disallowed. Thus, in a match where a draw would have been satisfactory, Slovakia secured 3 points.
In the 2nd round, Slovakia faced a highly motivated Ukraine, who were recovering from a first-round failure, and lost 2-1. The match was balanced overall, but Slovakia couldn’t maintain their pace in the 2nd half due to the team’s age. Ukraine, known for their physical strength, intensified their efforts after the break, turning the game in their favor.
Slovakia is a solid, experienced team, slightly favored by bookmakers and experts. Despite various nuances, they are ready to challenge any opponent.
Romania
In the 1st round, Romania capitalized on their opportunities and crushed Ukraine 3-0. While Ukraine controlled the ball, they couldn’t create anything substantial aside from a series of goalkeeper and defensive errors, most of which resulted in goals for Romania. Remarkably, the xG (expected goals) for their three goals was only 1.20.
In the 2nd round, Romania faced an “angry” Belgium and lost 2-0, with another of Lukaku’s goals being disallowed by the referees. Belgium held a noticeable advantage but also allowed Romania to play. The match was active and attacking, but Romania lacked the experience and luck to score.
The team can play substantive football against strong opponents but is not yet consistently capable of achieving high results against top teams.
Prediction
Romania will be satisfied with a draw since this would put them above Slovakia and likely finish 2nd in the group, which means advancing. This increases their strategic flexibility and adds a sense of calm. Combined with an interesting betting line, this is a valuable find.
xGscore Prediction: Romania: Handicap (0)
