- What: 1st round of EURO 2024, Group B, Spain vs Croatia
- Where: Germany, Berlin
- When: June 15, 19:00 (local time - 18:00)
- Stadium: Olympiastadion (76,000 seats)
The first big match at EURO 2024 – the current bronze medalists of the European Championship against the current bronze medalists of the World Cup. Sounds very interesting! Both teams are in the group of "dark horse" favorites for the tournament. However, one of them may not make it out of the group, as this is the "group of death" and it also includes another top team – Italy. A draw is not an option.
Spain
Triumphantly qualified for EURO from the 1st place in their qualifying group, which was quite tough. The opponents were all strong and promising: Scotland, Norway, Georgia, and Cyprus. They dropped points in only 1 out of 8 matches – losing to Scotland 2:0. The other 7 games were victories with a total score of 25 goals scored and 3 conceded.
Before EURO, they played 4 friendlies. 2 in March – testing the scheme and lineup – lost to Colombia 1:0 and drew with Brazil 3:3. Another 2 in June – for good spirits – "smashed" Andorra 5:0 and Northern Ireland 5:1.
They often play high-scoring games – 7 out of 12 matches went over 3.5 total goals, and 4 of them even exceeded 5.5 goals. Since November, they have regularly conceded goals – in 5 out of 6 matches. During this period, they kept a clean sheet only against Andorra.
Croatia
They qualified for EURO from the 2nd place in their group after a very tough battle, conceding the leadership to Turkey and pulling away from Wales at the very end. It is noteworthy that out of 4 head-to-head matches with the main competitors, Croatia dropped points in 3: a draw and a loss to Wales – 1:1 and 2:1, as well as a loss 1:0 and a win 2:0 against Turkey.
They played 4 friendlies since the beginning of spring. 2 in March – warmed up and enjoyed themselves – a draw with Tunisia 0:0 and a win over Egypt 4:2. Another 2 in June – tested their lineup under maximum combat conditions – beat North Macedonia 3:0 and Portugal 2:1. They seem close to their peak!
They almost always score – 10 out of 12 matches. They concede few goals: in 10 out of 12 matches – 1 goal or less.
Prediction
Croatia will act cautiously, but it is unlikely they will manage to contain Spain's attack. Both teams will play for the win – a draw is a tactically losing option. Italy has every chance to beat Albania in the other match. The game might not be a goal fest, but at least a couple of goals should be expected.
Prediction xGscore: Total Over 2 with odds of 1.62
