- What: 1st round of EURO 2024, Group F, Turkey vs Georgia
- Where: Germany, Dortmund
- When: June 18, 19:00 (local time - 18:00)
- Stadium: BVB-Stadion (65,600 seats)
With Portugal in the group, the remaining three teams will likely have to compete for the second qualifying spot. Experts and bookmakers consider Georgia the underdog in this fight, but the situation is not as clear-cut. There are strong arguments against such a straightforward assumption.
Turkey
Turkey confidently secured first place in a rather challenging qualifying group, surpassing Croatia and Wales. Lower-seeded teams like Armenia and Latvia also posed a challenge. In the end, out of 8 matches: 1 loss to Croatia (2-0), 2 draws with Armenia (1-1) and Wales (1-1). They won the remaining 5 matches, but only one was a convincing victory over Latvia (4-0).
In the fall, following a series of poor results, a new coach, Vincenzo Montella, was appointed. He finished the qualifiers well but had a disappointing run in spring friendlies. Out of 4 matches, there was 1 draw with Italy (0-0) and 3 losses to Hungary (1-0), Austria (6-1), and Poland (2-1).
The team is extremely inconsistent, as usual. They can defeat top teams but also lose to underdogs.
Georgia
Georgia fought for a spot at EURO in a very strong qualifying group with Spain, Scotland, Norway, and Cyprus. Expectedly, they were eliminated, but the Nations League came to their rescue. In the playoffs, they defeated Luxembourg (2-0) and Greece (0-0, 4-2 on penalties).
They played only one friendly before the EURO, where they won against Montenegro (3-1). The team has significantly improved under Willy Sagnol and continues to progress. While they haven't achieved major victories yet, their notable failures have disappeared.
Prediction
Georgia's defense is not particularly reliable, but their attack is strong – they scored in 11 out of 13 cycle matches, including in 2 matches against Spain, and conceded in 10 games. The same can be said about Turkey; they are unlikely to keep a clean sheet – they conceded in 10 out of 14 games and scored in 11 of them.
Prediction xGscore: Both Teams to Score
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