The World Cup quarter-final in Foxborough brings back the teams from the loudest semi-final of Qatar: three and a half years ago, France beat Morocco 2:0 and denied Africa its first ever place in a World Cup final. Mohamed Ouahbi’s side comes into the rematch in a status it could only dream of in 2022: the unbeaten run has reached 34 matches, with the Netherlands beaten on penalties and Canada already removed from the path. France answers with a perfect tournament line: six wins from six matches, 14 goals scored and only two conceded. Kylian Mbappe, with seven goals, shares the top of the scoring race with Lionel Messi, while this World Cup looks set to be Didier Deschamps’ final tournament in charge - one more reason not to slip one step before the semi-finals.
France form and xG
France have won their last five matches, and the numbers look even stronger than the scorelines: 2.2 xG created and only 0.7 xG conceded per game on average. The round of 16 against Paraguay was a clear example: a 1:0 win through Mbappe’s penalty with full control of the match - the opponent produced only a symbolic 0.18 xG. The centre-back pairing of William Saliba and Dayot Upamecano has not allowed the defence to be broken from open play during the tournament, while Mike Maignan has rarely been forced into major work. There is also a squad boost: Aurelien Tchouameni, who missed the Paraguay match with a thigh issue, has recovered on schedule, with the final decision on his involvement to be made before kick-off. France have controlled long spells of possession throughout the tournament, set the rhythm themselves and waited patiently for the right moment - against Paraguay’s deep block, one accurate strike from the penalty spot settled the tie.
Morocco form and xG
Morocco have not lost to elite-level opponents for several years, and the list speaks clearly: at this tournament - 1:1 with Brazil and 1:1 with the Netherlands in normal time, plus 0:0 with Spain, 1:0 against Portugal and 2:0 against Belgium from the Qatar cycle. Against major teams, Morocco consistently lower the tempo and give away very little around their own box. There is another side to it: Morocco beat Canada 3:0 while producing only 0.92 xG, so their finishing in the knockout stage has been running above the quality of chances created. The main concern is personnel. Team top scorer Ismael Saibari pulled his hamstring against Canada and remains doubtful: scans ruled out a serious injury, but the final call will come after the pre-match training session. Chadi Riad, meanwhile, is ready to return to central defence after missing the round of 16 with a knee problem.
xG prediction and correct score
The projected xG for this match is 1.5 for France against 0.9 for Morocco. xGscore predictions across the main markets point in the same direction: France to win, under 2.5 goals and both teams not to score. The match picture fits together clearly. France should spend long spells on the ball and work against a deep defensive block, while Morocco will look for rare counterattacks through the pace of Achraf Hakimi and Brahim Diaz - but breaking the best defence of the tournament in that pattern is extremely difficult, which supports the clean-sheet scenario for the favourite. Both teams have protected their own goal first in the knockout stage, where the cost of one mistake is huge, so the model does not expect goals at both ends - that is why the total also points down. The logical final score is 1:0 to France: a narrow edge in class, decided by one episode, just as it was in the previous round.
France vs Morocco betting tip
Morocco’s matches against elite-level opponents repeatedly come down to a minimum number of goals, while France do not open up in the knockout stage and can decide this type of game with one accurate strike. The bet is under 3 goals: the extra half-goal works as protection against a sudden finishing spike, something Morocco have already shown in this tournament. Agree with the prediction? Vote for the bet on the page and compare your view with the rest.
